The planning process in staffing involves making forecasts of an organization’s future hiring needs and developing methods the organization can use to meet these needs. The process of planning involves a combination of forecasting labor needs, comparing these needs to the labor availabilities, and determining where gaps exist. After these gaps are identified, general plans for filling these gaps are enacted.
Beyond the process of developing objectives for the number of individuals to be hired, planning activities often take the demographic composition of the workforce into consideration. Attending to the demographic breakdown of the workforce is important for a number of reasons. One is to ensure that the company has employees who can understand the perspective of the populations the company serves. The second reason is to minimize concerns about Equal Employment Opportunity violations . For both purposes, the current workforce can be compared to the demographic characteristics of other individuals who work in similar jobs.
Planning for the State of Washington: Forecasting Requirements and Availabilities
The Staffing Services Director, Daryl Perrone, has requested your assistance in the completion of an HR planning analysis for the 50 stores in two regional divisions in the state of Washington. After these overall goals are developed for the state, the policy will be disseminated across all 50 individual stores. Data from the individual stores will then be sent to the corporate offices for analysis and re-evaluation.
The basic model for planning includes (1) forecasting labor requirements, (2) forecasting labor availabilities, (3) conducting environmental scans, (4) determining gaps, and (5) developing action plans. These steps are described in your textbook. Conducting an adequate human resources selection plan will require you to take all of these steps.
Historical data from these two divisions have been presented in the transition probability matrix. Information on how to read transition matrices is provided in your textbook. The transition probability matrix was developed based on the historical staffing pattern for Washington over the past five years. A first stage of investigating staffing is to use the previous years’ staffing patterns as a preliminary forecast of labor requirements, the internal availability based on retention, internal promotions, transfers and demotions, and a determination of gaps by subtracting forecasted availabilities from future requirements.
Table 1.1 Markov Analysis Information
Transition probability matrix Current year
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Exit
Previous year (1) Store associate 0.53 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41
(2) Shift leader 0.00 0.50 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.34
(3) Department manager 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.12 0.00 0.30
(4) Assistant store manager 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.46 0.08 0.40
(5) Store manager 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.34
Forecast of availabilities Next year (projected)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Exit
Current Workforce
Previous year (1) Store associate 8,500 4505 510 0 0 0 3485
(2) Shift leader 1,200 0
(3) Department manager 850 0
(4) Assistant store manager 150 0
(5) Store manager 50 0
Gap analysis Next year (projected)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Year end total
(column sum) 4505
External hires needed
(current workforce-total) 3995
Forecasting Labor Requirements
The Washington market is very stable for Tanglewood. Most stores have been in existence for 10 or more years, and were indirectly managed by either Emerson or Wood when they were first established. Because of this stability, the estimate for the coming year’s labor requirements is identical to the current year. So, for example, they currently have 1,200 individuals working as shift leader, and expect to need 1,200 individuals to work as shift leaders for the coming year as well.
Forecasting Labor Availabilities
One primary source of information for immediate labor availability at Tanglewood is their internal labor market. Table 1.1 shows that Tanglewood has used internal promotions to fill many openings for the department manager, assistant store manager, and store manager positions. For example, it is projected that 16% of shift leaders will be promoted to the rank of department manager, 12% of department managers will be promoted to be assistant store managers, and 8% of assistant store managers will be promoted to be store managers. However, it also appears that there will need to be considerable external hiring as well, since only 46%-66% of employees stay in the same position over a one year period.
To estimate a labor forecast, the proportion (percentage) of individuals for the next year is multiplied by the current workforce number. For the shift leader, there are 1,200 individuals in the position, of which, 50% will remain for the next year. This means that the projected availability is 1,200 × 50% = 600. Similarly, 16% of the shift leaders will be promoted to be department managers, so 1,200 × 16% = 192.
Conducting Environmental Scans
The environment for staffing managerial employees at Tanglewood in the state of Washington is fairly complex. Externally, there is a consistent supply of qualified individuals in the urban markets of Seattle and Spokane. Individuals from these urban areas often are transferred to small towns as they move up the promotion chain. However, retail is often seen as an undesirable market for recent college graduates. Many know of retail work experience, and see it (partially correctly) as requiring long hours, low pay, and frequent conflict with lower-level employees. While these factors lessen as individuals move up the hierarchy, many individuals are reluctant to put in several years in the shift leader and department manager positions to be promoted.
The labor market in the Pacific Northwest has been relatively “soft” in recent years, meaning that unemployment rates are high and it is usually difficult for individuals to find new jobs. This weakness in the labor market has made it somewhat easier for Tanglewood to find new candidates for the managerial positions, but recent forecasts suggest that expansion in the professional and managerial sectors of the labor market may reduce the number of individuals available for these jobs.
Internally, Tanglewood has relied on its experienced employees as a major source of talent. As noted earlier, the company promotes extensively from within. As a result, managerial employees often have significant experience with the company’s social environment and culture. This internal staffing strategy is seen as a real strength for the company, because the possibility of being promoted is believed to increase retention of lower level employees.
Determining Gaps
The current focus of staffing is to fill the vacant positions, although the organization would like to take steps to reduce the turnover rate for many of these jobs as well. During the planning phase targets are set for the number of individuals who need to be hired. The process of turning these estimates into actual employees will be covered in the recruiting phase. There are 1,200 shift leaders currently, so if 600 individuals stay, Tanglewood will need to hire 600 more. The calculation of gaps is demonstrated in Exhibit 3.9 in the textbook; refer to this when you are determining gaps for Tanglewood.
Developing Action Plans
