Tag Archive for: science homeworks

The cultural evolution of prosocial religions

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The cultural evolution of prosocial religions

 

Abstract: We develop a cultural evolutionary theory of the origins of prosocial religions and apply it to resolve two puzzles in human psychology and cultural history: (1) the rise of large-scale cooperation among strangers and, simultaneously, (2) the spread of prosocial religions in the last 10–12 millennia. We argue that these two developments were importantly linked and mutually energizing. We explain how a package of culturally evolved religious beliefs and practices characterized by increasingly potent, moralizing, supernatural agents, credible displays of faith, and other psychologically active elements conducive to social solidarity promoted high fertility rates and large-scale cooperation with co-religionists, often contributing to success in intergroup competition and conflict. In turn, prosocial religious beliefs and practices spread and aggregated as these successful groups expanded, or were copied by less successful groups. This synthesis is grounded in the idea that although religious beliefs and practices originally arose as nonadaptive by-products of innate cognitive functions, particular cultural variants were then selected for their prosocial effects in a long-term, cultural evolutionary process. This framework (1) reconciles key aspects of the adaptationist and by-product approaches to the origins of religion, (2) explains a variety of empirical observations that have not received adequate attention, and (3) generates novel predictions. Converging lines of evidence drawn from diverse disciplines provide empirical support while at the same time encouraging new research directions and opening up new questions for exploration and debate.

Keywords: belief; cooperation; culture; evolution; prosociality; religion; ritual

BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES (2016), Page 1 of 65 doi:10.1017/S0140525X14001356, e1

1. Introduction: Two related puzzles

The vast majority of humans today live in large-scale, anon- ymous societies. This is a remarkable and puzzling fact because, prior to roughly 12,000 years ago,1 most people lived in relatively small-scale tribal societies (Johnson & Earle 2000), which themselves had emerged from even smaller-scale primate troops (Chapais 2008). This dramatic scaling up appears to be linked to changes that occurred after the stabilization of global climates at the beginning of the Holocene, when food production began to gradually replace hunting and foraging, and the scale of human societies started to expand (Richerson et al. 2001). Even the earliest cities and towns in the Middle East, not to mention today’s vast metropolises with tens of millions of people, contrast sharply with the networks of foraging bands that have characterized most of the human lineage’s evolutionary history (Hill et al. 2011). The rise of stable, large, cooperative societies is one of

the great puzzles of human history, because the free- rider problem intensifies as groups expand. Proto-moral sentiments that are rooted in kin selection and reciprocal altruism have ancient evolutionary origins in the primate lineage (deWaal 2008), and disapproval of antisocial behav- ior emerges even in preverbal babies (Bloom 2013; Hamlin et al. 2007). However, neither kin selection nor reciprocal altruism (including partner-choice mechanisms) can explain the rise of large, cooperative, anonymous societies (Chudek & Henrich 2011; Chudek et al. 2013). Genealog- ical relatedness decreases geometrically with increasing group size, and strategies based on direct or indirect reci- procity fail in expanding groups (Boyd & Richerson 1988) or as reputational information becomes increasingly noisy or unavailable (Panchanathan & Boyd 2003). Without addi- tional mechanisms to galvanize cooperation, groups

ARA NORENZAYAN is Professor of Psychology at the University of British Columbia (UBC) and a co-director of the Centre for Human Evolution, Cognition and Culture at UBC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan in 1999. He has pub- lished widely on the cognitive science of religious belief, the evolutionary origins of religion and religious diversity, cultural evolution, and culture and cognition. In 2014–15, he was the recipient of a James McKeen Cattell Fund Fellowship in Psychology. He is the author of Big Gods: How Religion Transformed Cooper- ation and Conflict, published in 2013 by Princeton Uni- versity Press.

AZIM SHARIFF is Assistant Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon. He received his BSc from the University of Toronto in 2004 and his Ph.D. from UBC in 2010, before joining the University of Oregon faculty. His research focuses on moral psychology and the cognitive science and evolution of religion, as well as religion’s psychological and social consequences. In 2012 he was awarded the Margaret Gorman Early Career Award from the American Psychological Associ- ation’s Division for the Psychology of Religion and Spirituality.

WILL GERVAIS is Assistant Professor of Psychology at the University of Kentucky. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from UBC in 2012. He is the author of more than 20 publications investigating the cognitive, cultural, and evolutionary causes and consequences of religious belief and disbelief. His work has appeared in journals such as Science, Psychological Science, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. He re- ceived the Canadian Psychological Association Certifi- cate of Academic Excellence for both his MA thesis and his doctoral dissertation. He was recently awarded the Margaret Gorman Early Career Award (American Psychological Association [APA] Division 36) in the psy- chology of religion and spirituality.

AIYANA WILLARD is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin. Her re- search focuses on the cognitive and cultural origins of supernatural and religious belief. She is currently con- ducting research on “spiritual but not religious” people in North America and Europe and witchcraft beliefs around the world. She maintains an active field site in Fiji, where she conducts research with Hindu and Muslim populations. She has been awarded the Joseph- Armand Bombardier Canada Graduate Scholarship and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC)DoctoralFellowshipduring her graduate career.

RITA MCNAMARA is a Ph.D. candidate in psychology at UBC. She received her B.A. in Anthropology and Psychol- ogy fromWashington University in St. Louis in 2009. Her work focuses on integrating laboratory and field-based methods towardunderstanding the linkbetween supernat- ural beliefs and social interactions, with a focus on cross- cultural experimental work in North America and ethno- graphic and experimental methods in Yasawa, Fiji. Her publications include work on variation in supernatural beliefs and cooperative behavior.

brain evolution

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ABSTRACT About 1200 researchers recently converged for the 71st annual meeting of the American Association of Physical

Anthropologists, where brain evolution was one of the hottest topics. Reports on the diet needed to support an

expanding brain and a new tool’s view of how the human brain took shape in evolution were discussed.

FULL TEXT Headnote

MEETING

Headnote

BUFFALO, NEW YORK-About 1200 researchers converged here for the 71 st annual meeting of the American

Association of Physical Anthropologists (10 to 14 April), where brain evolution was one of the hottest topics,

including reports on the diet needed to support an expanding brain and a new tool’s view of how the human brain

took shape in evolution.

Something Fishy About Brain Evolution

Illustrations of human ancestors routinely show brawny hunters bringing home the wildebeest, butchering meat

with stone tools, and scavenging carcasses on the savanna. But a more accurate image might be ancient

fishermen-and fisherwomen– wading into placid lakes and quietly combing shorelines for fish, seabirds’ eggs,

mollusks, and other marine food.

At a symposium on nutritional constraints on brain evolution, an unusual mix of anthropologists, neurochemists,

nutritionists, and archaeologists debated the kind of diet that must have supported humans’ dramatic brain

expansion, focusing on how our ancestors consumed enough of the omega fatty acids essential for brain

development. Although a few researchers suggested that the source was brain and other organ meat, most agreed

that our ancestors must have relied on fish or shellfish. “A shore-based diet was essential for the evolution of

human brains,” says nutritional scientist Stephen C. Cunnane of the University of Toronto.

That’s because humans, intelligent though we may be, are literally fatheads: About 60% of the brain’s structural

material is lipids, almost all of it in the form of two long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, docosahexaenoic acid

(DHA) and arachidonic acid (AA), respectively known as omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids. So when a fetus’s brain

is developing, a lack of DHA or AA is “catastrophic,” says Cunnane.

These acids are vital to brain growth and function after birth, too. Infant humans and other mammals that lack

these fatty acids show reduced cognitive ability and vision problems. (The retina has the highest concentration of

DHA.) In adults, new data suggest that depletion of these acids may be linked to attention deficit disorders,

dyslexia, senile dementia, schizophrenia, and other problems, according to a review by geochemist C. Leigh

Broadhurst of the US. Department of Agriculture’s Environmental Chemistry Laboratory and Michael Crawford of

the University of North London in the April issue of Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part B.

People must consume DHA and AA in their diets, because the body cannot synthesize these molecules fast

https://search.proquest.com/docview/213589776?accountid=8289
https://search.proquest.com/docview/213589776?accountid=8289

enough from other fatty acids found in vegetables, nuts, flaxseed, and other sources. Although by far the best

source of DHA is shellfish and fish, particularly cold-water fish such as bluefish and herring, these acids are also

found in brain meat and in the liver of some animals, says physiologist Loren Cordain of Colorado State University

in Fort Collins.

But our ancestors couldn’t support an expanding brain by eating brain alone: Crawford calculated that a 350-gram

brain from a 1-ton rhinoceros would barely feed a party of hunters, much less those who needed it most: pregnant

and nursing women and children. To have a reliable source of DHA, particularly to increase brain size rather than

sustain it, Broadhurst says, “many generations of women had access to fish.” She adds that many archaeological

sites are by lakes and rivers, so our ancestors must have taken advantage of these obvious resources.

The hypothesis makes sense, says neurochemist Norman Salem Jr. of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and

Alcoholism. “I would expect that those early brains as they expanded maintained the high DHA content we have

today,” Salem says. “It seems reasonable to me that they evolved around water with marine sources available.”

Indeed, for at least the past 100,000 years, the archaeological record of modem humans includes hundreds of

middens– piles of shellfish shells and fishbone-and other signs of fishing. By 70,000 years ago at Blombos Cave in

South Africa, and perhaps as early as 90,000 years ago at Katanda, Zaire, people carved bone points for fishing,

says anthropologist Alison Brooks of George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

But the brain underwent explosive growth long before this time, probably beginning about 2 million years ago in

hominids who lived in Africa and Asia. Methods to reconstruct their diet by studying the ratios of isotopes of

carbon and strontium in their teeth or bone have so far failed to discern whether they ate marine foods, says Julia

Lee-Thorpe of the University of Cape Town in South Africa. And although some new methods measuring barium

ratios hold promise, it might be difficult to fmd the right hominid remains to test: “For the past 2 million years, the

ocean was 10 meters lower than today,” notes geologist Henry Schwarcz of McMaster University in Hamilton,

Ontario. “Where were the fisheating populations living? On the nowsubmerged coast.” Many hominids did live near

Africa’s abundant lakes, however, and their bones may eventually prove whether or not fish gave our ancestors

food for thought.

Hot Spots of Brain Evolution

Humans may pride themselves on their big brains, but just which parts of the brain expanded during evolution has

been fiercely debated. Now it seems that, compared with chimpanzees, humans may be literally more right-

minded. A powerful new imaging technique presented at the meeting revealed bulges on the right-hand surface of

human brains that are not seen in chimpanzees, suggesting that these areas expanded during our evolutionary

history, perhaps to aid in processing the rhythms and tone of speech.

“The surprise is the degree to which the right side expanded,” says speaker Dean Falk,f an anthropologist at Florida

State University, Tallahassee. “It’s generally been thought that the left hemisphere was most important because it

is known to be the language-bearing side of the brain. That’s true, but we see more changes on the right.”

Although the findings are preliminary, the new method, which uses magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to study

and compare the brains of living people and chimpanzees as well as ancient skulls, is already winning rave

reviews. “I was totally blown away by the technique,” says Patrick Gannon, a comparative neurobiologist at Mount

Sinai School of Medicine in New York City.

The technical wizardry that impressed the audience was developed as part of an international effort to map the

activity of living people’s brains with functional MRI, which tracks oxygen use by tissues, says developer Karl Zilles,

head of research groups at the Vogt Institute for Brain Research and at the Research Center Julich, both in

Disseldorf, Germany. To compare scans of different people with different imaging methods, Zilles’s team recently

developed software that can shrink or blow up brain maps to a standard size without scaling problems.

Zilles realized that he could adapt the method to compare the sides of the brain, and even the brains of different

species-specifically, people, chimpanzees, and extinct hominids. So Zilles and Falk used MRI to make highly

accurate “virtual endocasts”-threedimensional computer images of the right and left sides of human brains. Using

the software to compare the two sides, they found two well-known asymmetries that cause bulges at the surface

of the frontal lobe behind the right eye and the left occipital lobe at the back of the brain. But they also found new

asymmetries, including many areas of the right brain that were larger than the left, such as a semicircle of

expansion from just behind the eye socket to the back of the brain.

Next, they looked at how these areas changed during human evolution. They made virtual endocasts of 10 human

brains. Then, because they couldn’t use MRI on live chimpanzees, they submerged skull endocasts from seven

bonobo chimpanzees in water and used MRI to image the water inside the braincase, revealing the shape of the

brain. Next they took the “average” cast of each species and used the software to “warp” and overlay the chimp

endocast on the human one, showing the areas of difference. They also overlaid a scaled functional human brain

map to show the functions of these regions. For example, they discovered a spot behind the right temple (see

illustration; shown in blue), thought to be used to analyze sound, that is smaller in humans than in bonobos.

All in all the team found five hotspots where the shape of the human brain differed from that of chimps, and three

were more dramatic on the right side. Falk then compared the human and chimp casts with those of 13 hominid

skull casts in her collection, ranging from a 2.5million-year-old australopithecine to more recent archaic Homo

sapiens and Neandertals. She found marked changes beginning in australopithecines, whose frontal lobes began

to expand above the nose. But this and other areas, such as the bottom of the lobe behind the temples, expanded

even more in archaic H. sapiens and Neandertals. In fact, notes Falk, the newly located asymmetries between the

left and right brain “are the exact areas that change dramatically in fossils.”

The next step is to figure out what functions are carried out by the expanded brain areas-and whether they reflect

deeper underlying structural changes rather than just rearrangements of the tissue next to the skull, says Daniel

Buxhoeveden, a biological anthropologist at the Medical College of Georgia in Augusta.

Falk thinks, for example, that the expansion of the semicircle on the right side may be important for understanding

the prosodic features of speech, such as rhythm, tone, and emotional content. “It was surprising because most

people, including me, are fixed on the idea that speech is dominant on the left side,” says Zilles. “Speech is

something human, but many changes are on the right.”

-ANN GIBBONS DETAILS

Subject: Brain; Evolution; Conferences; Anthropology

MeSH: Animal, Anthropology, Physical, Brain — anatomy &histology, Brain — growth

&development, Brain Mapping, Diet, Dietary Fats, Evolution, Fatty Acids, Unsaturated

— administration &dosage, Fatty Acids, Unsaturated — physiology, Fishes, Hominidae

— anatomy &histology, Human, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Pan troglodytes —

anatomy &histology, Shellfish

Define evolution using the course materials.

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The primary goal of this exercise is for the student to further examine evolution from the perspective of two subfields in anthropology.  The all-encompassing nature of evolution will be illustrated, and students will have the opportunity to explore the holistic nature of anthropology.

 

Description:

 

Anthropologists study many different aspects of humanity in order to fully understand the diversity of the human species.  One of these aspects concerns our development as a species, both physically and culturally.  For the assignment, the student will first discuss and investigate evolution as viewed by physical anthropology, and then the student will investigate and discuss evolution from one other subfield – cultural, linguistic, or archaeological.

 

Directions:  In a 4-6 page written assignment, answer the following questions.

 

1) Define evolution using the course materials.

2) Define physical anthropology.  Discuss some of the general ways physical anthropologists investigate evolution.

3) Using the APUS Library, find at least one appropriate outside source that identifies one specific research project in which physical anthropologists are studying evolution (e.g. the Human Genome Project).  Describe the research project and its significance in our understanding of evolution.  Conduct original research, do not use the genome project because that example is given in class.

4) Choose and define a second subfield of anthropology (cultural anthropology, linguistic anthropology, or archaeology).

5) Discuss some of the general ways an anthropologist in this second subfield investigates evolution.

*Remember, evolution can apply to both physical and societal changes, so things like language and customs can evolve just as much as bodies and brains can.

6) Using the APUS Library, find at least one appropriate outside source that identifies one specific research project in which anthropologists in this second subfield are studying evolution. Describe the research project and its significance in our understanding of evolution.  For example, an archaeologist may look at how tools have changed through time, and what has caused that change (conduct your own original research, do not use this example).

8) Discuss how the study of evolution between physical anthropology and your chosen subfield compares and contrasts.

9) Conclude by discussing and reflecting on one new piece of information you learned about evolution.

 

Coaching: Finding articles to use for this Assignment

Review this screencast or script to help you learn to locate appropriate college-level sources using the Summon search tool in our Library.

Review this FAQ page from our Librarian: How do I locate articles associated with evolution, culture, and anthropology research projects?

Disclaimer 

Originality of attachments will be verified by Turnitin. Both you and your instructor will receive the results.

Writing Expectations

All written submissions should be submitted using APA formatting. In part, this includes:

·      Typewritten in double-spaced format with a readable style and font and submitted inside the electronic classroom.

·      Arial 11 or 12-point font or Times New Roman styles.

·      Page margins Top, Bottom, Left Side and Right Side = 1 inch, with reasonable accommodation being made for special situations and online submission variances.

·      Save as .doc, .rtf, or .pdf

·      See a Basics of APA Style tutorial for coaching on APA formatting.  For additional resources, use your COLL100 materials, our Library, and the Purdue Online Writing Lab.

Note: 

This course has “Resubmission” status enabled to help you if you realize you submitted an incorrect or blank file, or if you need to submit multiple documents as part of your Assignment.  Resubmission of an Assignment after it is graded, to attempt a better grade, is not permitted.

 

Grading Rubric

View the grading rubric so you understand how you will be assessed on this Assignment.  Click the grid icon at the top of this instruction page, or the grid icon under “View iRubric” on the main Assignments page.

The primary goal of this exercise is for the student to further examine evolution from the perspective of two subfields in anthropology

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Purpose: The primary goal of this exercise is for the student to further examine evolution from the perspective of two subfields in anthropology.  The all-encompassing nature of evolution will be illustrated, and students will have the opportunity to explore the holistic nature of anthropology.
Description: Anthropologists study many different aspects of humanity in order to fully understand the diversity of the human species.  One of these aspects concerns our development as a species, both physically and culturally.  For the assignment, the student will first discuss and investigate evolution as viewed by physical anthropology, and then the student will investigate and discuss evolution from one other subfield – cultural, linguistic, or archaeological.
Directions: 
In a 4-6 page written assignment, answer the following questions. 1) Define evolution using the course materials.  2) Define physical anthropology.  Discuss some of the general ways physical anthropologists investigate evolution.3) Using the APUS Library, find at least one appropriate outside source that identifies one specific research project in which physical anthropologists are studying evolution (e.g. the Human Genome Project).  Describe the research project and its significance in our understanding of evolution.  Conduct original research, do not use the genome project because that example is given in class.  4) Choose and define a second subfield of anthropology (cultural anthropology, linguistic anthropology, or archaeology).5) Discuss some of the general ways an anthropologist in this second subfield investigates evolution.*Remember, evolution can apply to both physical and societal changes, so things like language and customs can evolve just as much as bodies and brains can.6) Using the APUS Library, find at least one appropriate outside source that identifies one specific research project in which anthropologists in this second subfield are studying evolution. Describe the research project and its significance in our understanding of evolution.  For example, an archaeologist may look at how tools have changed through time, and what has caused that change (conduct your own original research, do not use this example).8) Discuss how the study of evolution between physical anthropology and your chosen subfield compares and contrasts.9) Conclude by discussing and reflecting on one new piece of information you learned about evolution. Coaching: Finding articles to use for this Assignment

Review this screencast or script to help you learn to locate appropriate college-level sources using the Summon search tool in our Library.

Review this FAQ page from our Librarian: How do I locate articles associated with evolution, culture, and anthropology research projects?

Disclaimer Originality of attachments will be verified by Turnitin. Both you and your instructor will receive the results.Writing ExpectationsAll written submissions should be submitted using APA formatting. In part, this includes:

  •      Typewritten in double-spaced format with a readable style and font and submitted inside the electronic classroom.
  •      Arial 11 or 12-point font or Times New Roman styles.
  •      Page margins Top, Bottom, Left Side and Right Side = 1 inch, with reasonable accommodation being made for special situations and online submission variances.
  •      Save as .doc, .rtf, or .pdf
  •      See a Basics of APA Style tutorial for coaching on APA formatting.  For additional resources, use your COLL100 materials, our Library, and the Purdue Online Writing Lab.

Note: 

This course has “Resubmission” status enabled to help you if you realize you submitted an incorrect or blank file, or if you need to submit multiple documents as part of your Assignment.  Resubmission of an Assignment after it is graded, to attempt a better grade, is not permitted.

Grading Rubric

View the grading rubric so you understand how you will be assessed on this Assignment.  Click the grid icon at the top of this instruction page, or the grid icon under “View iRubric” on the main Assignments page.

Define the concept of self reflection

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Reply to the following questions/comments using 110-130 words… must be in your own words no special format needed just comments/ questions and answers….  **** Please include original questions with answers**** 

1.  After reading through the materials in this chapter consider the following question and post your response.

Define the concept of self reflection.

2.  Self reflection is applying critical thinking on your own self. But it is not just about thinking it is about the whole self and actions. The application of self reflection is being cognitive to your inner feelings, thoughts, feelings and so much more. As for the practitioner application, this is to accept one’s inner self and by doing so you will not succumb to someone else’s assumptions and beliefs. This will assist in the personal understanding but as well as the professional understanding as a Holistic Nurse.

3.  After reading through the materials in this chapter consider the following question and post your response.

Are there any barriers that interfere with your practice of exercise and movement?  What exercise and movement will improve fitness?

4. It was interesting reading about the benefits of humor does to our body and mind. I am a person that after a stressful day there is nothing healthier than a good laugh with family and friends. Humor like mentioned in the readings, “can be an effective stress management technique.”  Humor can be a release of tension from any situation. Having a little of humor and laughter in our daily life can also help us forget about our problems for a minute and relax our minds and body.

5. Humor is a great medicine, of course, if used in a good taste. Humor provides distraction from the current events and provides an energy as tensions are released. The practitioner or individual must know the audience to ensure the humor is not taken as offensive. If taken in offense, the situation actually becomes worse. The use of humor can be to insight courage, release tensions, or protect from a emotional situation

6.  Relaxation is a major healing and surviving technique that, if you know what works for you, can provide several benefits. Mine is certain types of music that I listen too, often while studying. Other forms of relaxation through things like meditation, yoga or breathing exercises also are beneficial that can reduce anxiety or pain. Such applications of relaxation techniques can help one to sleep or at least rest which will assist in healing.

7.  We all use imagery as we assume in what is happening when we feel like something is not right. Just as the example in the textbook on page 371 as the woman discovers a breast lump. Many of us will jump to conclusions as to what is wrong or what the results can be before we even seek medical attention for a condition. Negative imaging can conjure fear. Positive imaging is the best guidance as it supports relaxation and helps increase the patient’s insights into their health problems.

8. As the relationship of spirituality and religion are part of each of us, though we all express it in different ways. Religion is a choice and a selection on the individual level. Religion prayers have been used for a long time and by many cultures expressing in many forms such as chants, dances, ceremonies, singing or even speaking. The patients that believe in their faith of their religion will pray for themselves and others and the power of prayer should not be discounted as many feel it is helping them as a whole person.

What is the interpretation of in the estimated regression equation?

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The Excel file “CentralEnglandTemp2017” shows the 3216 monthly mean (surface air) temperatures for the Midlands region of England between 1750 and 2017. (The shown temperatures are in Celsius degrees measured with a precision of 0.1 °C.) The data set represents the longest reliable series of monthly temperature observations in existence, and hence is the most valuable source of information for meteorologists and climate scientists. It was originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953, and has been subsequently updated until today.

It is quite obvious that the monthly temperatures for Midlands must have a seasonal pattern. However, the main purpose of the assignment is to examine the trend existence and its consequences.

1. Using XLMiner (Transform > Transform Categorical Data > Create Dummies), create 12 dummy variables corresponding to the 12 months (Jan, Feb,…,Dec). Since the categorical variable Month has 12 levels (categories), delete the dummy variable Jan; you will assume later the linear regression model with linear trend and seasonality:

Note. XLMiner shows the created dummy variables in the alphabetical order, so rename and rearrange them properly.

2. Create two separate data sets for the time periods 1750 – 1949 (2400 observations) and 1950-2017 (816 observations) on which you could run regression for the assumed regression model. For this purpose, you should create an additional independent variable t with values 1,2,…,2400 and 1,2,…,816, respectively.

3. Use the first data set (created for 1750-1949).

A. Run Regression (in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner) to find the estimated regression equation:

B. To verify the significance of the trend in the examined time series, test the hypotheses versus . What is the p-value of the test, the test conclusion and its interpretation? (Recall that in Excel, for example, 2E-08 is , which is practically zero.)

C. What is the interpretation of in the estimated regression equation? What is the estimated change in the average temperature over 100 years based on the 1750-1949 data? Note. Secure a sufficiently high accuracy in your calculations.

4. Use the second data set (created for 1950-2017).

A. Run Regression (in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner) to find the estimated regression equation:

B. To verify the significance of the trend in the examined time series, test the hypotheses versus . What is the p-value of the test, the test conclusion and its interpretation?

C. What is the estimated change in the average temperature over 100 years based on the 1950-2017 data? Compare this result with that found in Task 3C.

D. Using the estimated regression equation found in Task 4A, make forecasts for the first nine months of 2018. On the website www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html, find the actual monthly temperatures (CET) recorded during the first nine months of 2018, and compare them with your forecasts by computing the nine forecast errors. How many times the actual temperature exceeds your forecasted temperature? How would you interpret your findings? Note. February and March of 2018 were exceptionally cold in the entire Western Europe. How this fact is reflected by the forecast errors.

E. In the regression model, assume the quadratic trend, that is,

After changing into in the data set, run Regression in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner to find the estimated regression equation:

F. Which of the two forecasting models (assumed in Tasks 4A and 4E) would you recommend and why?

5. Interpret your findings in light of the discussion about global warming. Feel free to express your opinion!

Note. You might be more accustomed to temperatures expressed in Fahrenheit degrees. If so, using the known formula: 0F = 9(0C)/5 + 32, you may convert all your 0C temperature data into 0F data.

Use Microsoft Word to write your answers. The Microsoft Word should include all relevant Excel/ XLMiner outputs (copy and paste them), and attach the Excel file that you work on it.

Instructions and data attached

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Instructions and data attached

 

The Excel file “CentralEnglandTemp2017” shows the 3216 monthly mean (surface air) temperatures for the Midlands region of England between 1750 and 2017. (The shown temperatures are in Celsius degrees measured with a precision of 0.1 °C.) The data set represents the longest reliable series of monthly temperature observations in existence, and hence is the most valuable source of information for meteorologists and climate scientists. It was originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953, and has been subsequently updated until today.

It is quite obvious that the monthly temperatures for Midlands must have a seasonal pattern. However, the main purpose of the assignment is to examine the trend existence and its consequences.

1. Using XLMiner (Transform > Transform Categorical Data > Create Dummies), create 12 dummy variables corresponding to the 12 months (Jan, Feb,…,Dec). Since the categorical variable Month has 12 levels (categories), delete the dummy variable Jan; you will assume later the linear regression model with linear trend and seasonality:

 

Note. XLMiner shows the created dummy variables in the alphabetical order, so rename and rearrange them properly.

2. Create two separate data sets for the time periods 1750 – 1949 (2400 observations) and 1950-2017 (816 observations) on which you could run regression for the assumed regression model. For this purpose, you should create an additional independent variable t with values 1,2,…,2400 and 1,2,…,816, respectively.

3. Use the first data set (created for 1750-1949).

List at least three (3) reasons why low carbohydrate diets work as a weight management or weight loss tool

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Rationale

Ketogenic diet, or “Keto diet” as it is popularly called, was originally designed for epileptic patients. Children who had seizures responded to this diet by experiencing a decrease in the number of seizures that they had.

The ketogenic diet has seen a revival in the recent past as a weight management tool. Carbohydrates are ordinarily the primary source of fuel for the body, particularly for the brain, which uses glucose exclusively as an energy source, when it is available. Low carbohydrates force the body to switch to an alternate energy/ fuel source.

The ketogenic diet recommends eating high amounts of fat and moderate amounts of protein with little or no carbohydrates. The body, in an attempt to conserve lean muscle mass, switches to using the products of fat metabolism, namely ketones, as fuel.

Ketones are capable of crossing the blood brain barrier and therefore can act as an alternative energy source for the brain. In this process, the body adapts to using fat from both within the body and in the diet as its primary energy source.

Four in ten adults in the United States attempt to lose weight in their lifetime. With over 2/3 of the population that is either overweight or obese, people are in constant search of the next thing that works. Keto diets have become popular among college students, especially to lose the “Freshman 15.”

The Prompt: What You Need to Do

Research and understand the scientific reasons behind WHAT the ketogenic diet is and WHY it works (you can also search for “low carbohydrate diets”) and how it is different from current dietary guidelines. Be sure to review the current dietary guidelines (Unit 1.3) so that you can address this appropriately. Understand the science behind the rapid weight loss of the keto diet, the limitations of the keto diet, attrition rates (inability to stick to the diet plan for an extended period of time) and its potential negative effects on health.

Use scientific journal articles to understand and come to your own conclusions regarding the merits and/ or weaknesses of the keto diet, as compared with a more conventional method of weight loss which would include restricting caloric intake and might include increasing physical activity. How to find resources for discussion walks you through the process of finding peer reviewed articles for research. Please do not do google search. In your discussion, cite your sources.

Details and Requirements: How to Get the Full Grade for This Discussion

Discussion Statement: The ketogenic diet is an excellent idea for an easy weight loss diet among college students (age group 18-30) with no apparent harmful side effects.

Pick a side and argue FOR or AGAINST this statement. (You must choose a ‘side,’ even if you are personally ‘neutral’ on the subject.) Your arguments should be scientifically based with appropriate citations. In making your case take into account the following:

1. List at least three (3) reasons why low carbohydrate diets work as a weight management or weight loss tool, as compared to a conventional diet of caloric restriction and/ or increase in physical activity;

2. The similarity, if any, between fasting (or starvation) and the keto diet;

3. Reason(s) for the high attrition rate for this type of diet (specifically, high attrition rates for the keto diet);

4. What is the likelihood that weight loss due to a low carb diet will be permanent? How does that likelihood compare with a more conventional plan of caloric restriction and/ or increase in physical activity? What happens when the student goes back to regular eating and activity habits?

5. How can a student use a low carb diet as a lifestyle modification? What are the potential downsides to the health of an individual who is on a long term low carbohydrate, high fat diet (6-12 months)?

(Your first post should be about 500 words excluding references.)

Find one or more peer-reviewed publications from scientific journals to support your viewpoint.

Cite the scientific sources that support your argument. (This does not mean you do a google search. Journal articles are considered as the ‘gold standard’ of scientific research. Find journal articles that support your point of view). Look at How to find resources for a discussion for an example on how to find credible sources.

Use APA format (http://www.apastyle.org/ (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.) to cite your sources within your text and to list your references at the end of your first post.

Respond to one or more of your classmates with an opposing point of view to further the discussion.

Describe how a consumer’s attitudes and beliefs about CAM could hinder objective assessments of reliability and credibility in CAM.

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Create a colorful and engaging 10- to 12-slide Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation on a methodology you create for assessing credibility and reliability of an Internet source of CAM information. Include detailed speaker notes for each slide. The last slide of your presentation is a reference slide; this lists all of the sources that you used in APA format (the reference slide does not count towards the 10 slide minimum). Be sure to cite all images used in your presentation – this can be included on the reference slide.

All UoP assignments are written in your own words, copy and paste from any source is not acceptable and the assignment will not earn credit! Rewrite the information in your own words so it is understandable to your audience.

Describe how a consumer’s attitudes and beliefs about CAM could hinder objective assessments of reliability and credibility in CAM.

Create five objective criteria to judge the credibility and reliability of a source of information on CAM.

Select a CAM therapy or modality, and research the Internet for websites on this therapy or modality. Be sure to not use the same therapy you used for the CAM paper. Then, perform the following:

  • Describe the therapy.
  • Examine the type of training or education that is required.
  • Discuss whether a license or certification is required to practice this therapy.
  • Identify the overseeing or regulating organization for this therapy.

Using your criteria, review one of the websites and determine how reliable the site is for CAM information.

  • Explain how you reached your conclusion about the website. Consider using a grading scale or grid for this exercise.
  • Describe steps the website could take to increase its credibility.

Introduction and conclusion, title page, APA style and references

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Risk Based Monitoring, Central Monitoring and Analytics Paper (3-5 pages in length)

Paper Scenario:

You are a pharmaceutical project manager associated with a compound that is planned to have 4-5 co-occurring/overlapping trials of this compound. The success of these trials is extremely important and you are on the executive committee with the goal of overseeing and verifying these trials are set up with a focus on quality. Because of the tight timelines to get the compound ready for FDA submission, some of required trials will have to overlap (although minimally). As such, the monitoring of the trial is critical to the success of the compound overall. You propose instituting central monitoring (off-site monitoring that will feed in findings to the on-site monitoring team). You are proposing monthly calls with the central monitor so you can see the central monitoring team’s analytical information (negative deviational trend information with pre-set parameters such as data entry, protocol deviations, requerying rate, SAE/AE rates per subject). Your job at this time is to propose this central monitoring (CM) approach to the other executive committee members.

Must include :

10 points: Introduction and conclusion, title page, APA style and references (at least 3).

10 points: APA style including but not limited to cover page, running title, summary, page numbers.

Note: You must include an introduction and conclusion paragraph as well as a list of references in APA style and a minimum of 3 articles (from this class, FDA guidance or alternative).

Three (3) benefits (you would propose to the committee) of including CM (10 points each X3)

Two (2) robust ways to mitigate the risk of a site trending negatively (1. per the CM report; 2. you can take any liberties you would like on what trend scores were trending negatively. For example, data entry time, # of deviations, number of queries or query reissuing) (10 points each X 2)

Three (3) take away points you would want the executive committee to consider in favor of the CM approach(10 points each X3)